03UTC: TC TREVOR(20P) making landfall less than 40km south of Lockhart as a strong category 2 US, rapid intensification expected over the Gulf


Warning 6/JTWC


0257UTC
0257UTC

https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC TREVOR(20P)
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 19, 2019:

Location: 13.0°S 144.1°E
Maximum Winds: 95 kt (175km/h)
Gusts: 115 kt ( 215km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 962 mb
CATEGORY 2 US
MAKING LANDFALL

REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 143.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 773 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TC 20P UNDERWENT EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI)
WITH A PEAK OF ABOUT 100 KNOTS AT 18/2100Z. AS INDICATED IN ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEIPA RADAR IMAGERY, THE
SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SINCE 18/2100Z AS IT BEGINS TO
MAKE LANDFALL; HOWEVER, 20P HAS MAINTAINED AN OBLONG EYE. THEREFORE,
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.0 TO 5.5 (90 TO 102
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY
THE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 20P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH.
AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND
REORIENTS AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AND HIGH UNCERTAINTY PRIMARILY DUE
TO DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND
MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS
THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTION BUT
IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 20P
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT CROSSES THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA
BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AFTER
TAU 36. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO RI AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO
VERY WARM SST (30-32C), HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES, FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NEAR TAU 96, TC 20P WILL MAKE
LANDFALL, TRACK INLAND AND STEADILY WEAKEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z,
192100Z AND 200300Z.//
NNNN

WARNING 6/JTWC
WARNING 6/JTWC

LANDFALL AREA LESS THAN 40KM SOUTH OF LOCKHART
LANDFALL AREA LESS THAN 40KM SOUTH OF LOCKHART

WARNING 6/JTWC
WARNING 6/JTWC

0247UTC
0247UTC

0050UTC
0050UTC

0050UTC
0050UTC

2119UTC
2119UTC

1955UTC
1955UTC

1949UTC
1949UTC

1937UTC
1937UTC

1731UTC
1731UTC

1717UTC
1717UTC


HWRF AT 18UTC: 121KT AT 96H
HWRF AT 18UTC: 121KT AT 96H

GFS AT 18UTC: 107KT AT +72H
GFS AT 18UTC: 107KT AT +72H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 19 Mars 2019 à 07:33