03UTC: TC SAVANNAH(19S) : intensity could fall below 35knots in 36hours maybe sooner


Warning 21/JTWC


04UTC
04UTC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC SAVANNAH(19S)
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 19, 2019:

Location: 18.1°S 86.6°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 55kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb

WEAKENING
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 86.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (SAVANNAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1056 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KT)
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE AT
27C. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, WHICH IS ALSO AIDING IN THE
RAPID WEAKENING TREND. TC 19S WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE
SOUTH. THE OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, INCLUDING STRONG (40 TO
50 KNOTS) VWS, WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TC 19S LEADING TO DISSIPATION
BY TAU 48, POSSIBLY SOONER. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HIGH.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//
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WARNING 21/JTWC
WARNING 21/JTWC

WARNING 21/JTWC
WARNING 21/JTWC

04UTC
04UTC





Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 19 Mars 2019 à 08:55