03UTC: South Indian: TC VERONICA(21S) intensifying rapidly to the north-west of Western Australia


Warning 2/JTWC


0044UTC
0044UTC

https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC VERONICA(21S)
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 20, 2019:

Location: 15.4°S 119.0°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt (120km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 992 mb
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 118.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 499 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
RECENT PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 192142Z SSMIS PASS SHOWING A
TIGHTLY-WRAPPED CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 21S HAS
STEADILY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AIDED BY PASSAGE OVER
WARM WATER, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STEERING RIDGE SITUATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
AUSTRALIA. TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING AROUND THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, TURNING POLEWARD BY TAU
72. STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR-TERM AS
THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM WATER (30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND
RESPONDS TO FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 72, VERTICAL
WINDS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, ARRESTING THE INTENSIFICATION
TREND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
REGARDING A STEADY POLEWARD TURN FOLLOWED BY AN APPROACH TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICT MORE WEAKENING
OFFSHORE AND A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ORIENTATION OF THE STEERING RIDGE
WITH A RESULTANT TRACK FARTHER TO THE WEST AROUND TAU 120. THE
CURRENT TRACK FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBLE
SCENARIO. GIVEN NOTED MODEL SPREAD, CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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WARNING 2/JTWC
WARNING 2/JTWC

WARNING 2/JTWC
WARNING 2/JTWC

0430UTC
0430UTC

0430UTC
0430UTC

0113UTC
0113UTC

 

00UTC
00UTC

2143UTC
2143UTC


HWRF AT 18UTC: 125KT AT +42H
HWRF AT 18UTC: 125KT AT +42H

GFS AT 18UTC: 113KT AT +84H
GFS AT 18UTC: 113KT AT +84H


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 20 Mars 2019 à 09:46