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03UTC: South Indian: 95S likely to intensify next 24hours, could become a strong cyclone in 3 or 4 days


TCFA issued by the JTWC


03UTC
03UTC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
INVEST 95S
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 19, 2019:

Location: 14.3°S 121.0°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
INTENSIFYING

WTXS21 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1S 121.3E TO 16.0S 116.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 190000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 121.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.7S 121.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 121.0E, APPROXIMATELY
231 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190105Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 181359Z ASCAT PASS
REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS WRAPPING IN FROM
THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-
20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING
WATERS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AND GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 18-30
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
200300Z.
//
NNNN

TCFA/JTWC
TCFA/JTWC

 

TCFA/JTWC
TCFA/JTWC

HWRF AT 18UTC: 125KT AT +96H
HWRF AT 18UTC: 125KT AT +96H

GFS AT 18UTC: 102KT AT +78H
GFS AT 18UTC: 102KT AT +78H

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Tuesday, March 19th 2019 à 08:06