03UTC: NORTH INDIAN: TC FANI(01B) slowly intensifying but rapid intensification possible next 4 days


Warning 5/JTWC


WARN5/JTWC
WARN5/JTWC
https://www.meteo974.re/
https://www.meteo974.re/
TC FANI(01B)
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 28, 2019:

Location: 7.1°N 88.1°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure:  mb
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 7.4N 87.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (FANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 483 NM EAST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE STORM HAS SLIGHTLY CONSOLIDATED AS RAIN BANDS, ALBEIT STILL
FRAGMENTED, WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT
CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON DEFINED LLC IN THE
272359Z 37GHZ CORIOLIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50
KNOTS IS AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS AND
T3.5/55KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES, RESPECTIVELY, AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW,
AND WARM (31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ITS PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST. AFTER TAU 72, IT WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR AXIS AND TURN
NORTHEASTWARD. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
FOUR DAYS AND PROMOTE A STEADY, POSSIBLY RAPID, INTENSIFICATION TO A
PEAK OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 96. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS WILL TRIGGER A
WEAKENING PHASE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS SPREAD OUT TO OVER
220 NM AT TAU 72 BUT ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE CYCLONE AND THE
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODELS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 17
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.//
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WARNING 5/JTWC
WARNING 5/JTWC

0032UTC
0032UTC

2359UTC
2359UTC



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 28 Avril 2019 à 09:09