03UTC: JOANINHA(22S) category 2 US, could intensify to category 3 within 24h while slowly approaching Rodrigues


Warning 13/JTWC


https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC JOANINHA(22S)
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 25, 2019:

Location: 17.5°S 62.1°E
Maximum Winds: 95 kt (175km/h)
Gusts: 115 kt ( 215km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 958 mb
CATEGORY 2 US

REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 62.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 314 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM
WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN INCIPIENT EYE. A
250011Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A BROAD MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 95 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.0-5.5 (90-102 KNOTS). TC
22S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO A
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY WITHIN THIS STEERING
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS
TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. DUE TO THIS COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT,
THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE AND
NAVGEM INDICATING FASTER TRACK SPEEDS INTO THE STR, WHICH APPEARS
UNLIKELY. ECMWF AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATE A SLOWER TRACK. THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SUPPORT HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH A WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH FAVORS SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AND IS
POSITIONED SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 22S IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY TO A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 36 TO TAU 48.
AFTER TAU 72, SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z,
252100Z AND 260300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

03UTC
03UTC

 

02UTC
02UTC

WARNING 13/JTWC
WARNING 13/JTWC

0206UTC
0206UTC



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 25 Mars 2019 à 07:42