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02W(MAWAR) accelerating and completing ETT//Invest 98W// TD 02L over the Gulf of Mexico// 0209utc



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JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TS 02W(MAWAR).
JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TS 02W(MAWAR).


WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: TS 02W(MAWAR). CURRENT ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS AT 02/06UTC: -5 KNOTS OVER 24HOURS.

0223060100 242N1258E  55
0223060106 250N1262E  50
0223060112 258N1271E  50
0223060118 266N1282E  50
0223060200 275N1297E  45
0223060206 283N1313E  45

WARNING 54 ISSUED AT 02/09UTC.

02W(MAWAR) accelerating and completing ETT//Invest 98W// TD 02L over the Gulf of Mexico// 0209utc

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SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF A BROAD CIRCULATION DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND DIVERGENT FLOW TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AGENCY FIXES AND 020421Z 37 GHZ GPM MICROWAVE IMAGER DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON RECENT CIMSS SATELLITE  CONSENSUS ESTIMATES AND PERIPHERAL WINDS EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS EVIDENT IN BOTH EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND IN WIND SPEEDS DERIVED FROM A 020346Z  AMSR2 PASS.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF A BROAD CIRCULATION DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND DIVERGENT FLOW TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AGENCY FIXES AND 020421Z 37 GHZ GPM MICROWAVE IMAGER DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON RECENT CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATES AND PERIPHERAL WINDS EXCEEDING 40 KNOTS EVIDENT IN BOTH EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND IN WIND SPEEDS DERIVED FROM A 020346Z AMSR2 PASS.

02W(MAWAR) accelerating and completing ETT//Invest 98W// TD 02L over the Gulf of Mexico// 0209utc
0426_capture.jpg 0426.Capture.JPG  (102.04 KB)
0635_capture.jpg 0635.Capture.JPG  (106.78 KB)

TC Warning Graphic

FORECAST REASONING.  SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS SITUATED ABOUT 35 NM NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AT TAU 12 AND 30 NM NORTH AT TAU 24 DUE TO RECENT STORM MOTION, BUT CONVERGES WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.  FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 02W WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY FULLY TROPICAL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT ACCELERATES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE STRONG STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STR TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER, BY TAU 24, A LOW AMPLITUDE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM, AND 02W WILL TRANSITION TO A GALE FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY TAU 36. STRONG POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT FOLLOWED BY FAVORABLE INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DESPITE DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND  SHEAR. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION AND STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS  ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THE EASTERN  AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS SITUATED ABOUT 35 NM NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AT TAU 12 AND 30 NM NORTH AT TAU 24 DUE TO RECENT STORM MOTION, BUT CONVERGES WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 02W WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY FULLY TROPICAL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT ACCELERATES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE STRONG STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STR TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER, BY TAU 24, A LOW AMPLITUDE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM, AND 02W WILL TRANSITION TO A GALE FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY TAU 36. STRONG POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT FOLLOWED BY FAVORABLE INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DESPITE DECREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION AND STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS.

Model Diagnostic Plot

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DIRECTION OF MOTION AND THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO, WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE ALONG-TRACK DIRECTION AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED FOR AN ACCELERATING SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST, WHICH IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DIRECTION OF MOTION AND THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO, WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE ALONG-TRACK DIRECTION AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED FOR AN ACCELERATING SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST, WHICH IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

Ensemble Track Ellipses


Experimental 34-kt Wind Speed Probabilities


Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Experimental)


WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: INVEST 98W. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 02/06UTC. ADVISORY(ABPW) ISSUED AT 0206UTC.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.5N  142.1E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED  MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC AS  EVIDENCED BY A 020032Z ASCAT METOP-C BULLSEYE PASS. CONSOLIDATION OF  THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALSO EVIDENT IN RECENT TOTAL  PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. THUS FAR, CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT  ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN MINIMAL. UPPER-LEVEL  ANALYSIS INDICATES 98W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT  WITH LOW TO MODERATE (5-10 KNOT) VWS, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE  TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND  ENSEMBLE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A  TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME  UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMELINE AND LOCATION OF FORMATION.  HOWEVER, IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION WILL  PASS TO THE WEST OF GUAM, BUT THE EASTERN INFLOW REGION WITH  ASSOCIATED HIGHER WINDS AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD AFFECT GUAM  AND THE CNMI IN ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS  ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS  ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A  SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.5N 142.1E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC AS EVIDENCED BY A 020032Z ASCAT METOP-C BULLSEYE PASS. CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALSO EVIDENT IN RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. THUS FAR, CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN MINIMAL. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 98W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (5-10 KNOT) VWS, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMELINE AND LOCATION OF FORMATION. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF GUAM, BUT THE EASTERN INFLOW REGION WITH ASSOCIATED HIGHER WINDS AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD AFFECT GUAM AND THE CNMI IN ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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NORTH ATLANTIC/GULF OF MEXICO: TD 02L. CURRENT ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS AT 02/06UTC: + 5 KNOTS OVER 24HOURS.

0223053018 248N 883W  15
0223053100 250N 876W  15
0223053106 255N 870W  15
0223053112 260N 866W  15
0223053118 264N 859W  20
0223060100 267N 857W  20
0223060106 272N 858W  25
0223060112 278N 863W  30
0223060118 280N 865W  30
0223060200 277N 865W  30
0223060206 273N 865W  30
capture_13.jpg Capture.JPG  (236.38 KB)
sfcplot_02l_latest.png sfcplot_02L_latest.png  (57.16 KB)

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TC Warning Graphic


Model Diagnostic Plot


Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Experimental)



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Friday, June 2nd 2023 à 14:15