Southern HEM: 13S may intensify after 48hours, localised heavy rain with Invest 94P over-land, Invest 96P under close watch


JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS FOR 13S(NONAME). INVEST 96P HAS BEEN UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS.


JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS FOR 13S(NONAME). INVEST 96P HAS BEEN UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS.
JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS FOR 13S(NONAME). INVEST 96P HAS BEEN UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS.
2021 JAN 27 #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #13S #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 27, 2021:
Location: 19.5°S 91.5°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
13S (NONAME), LOCATED AT 27/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 2530KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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INVEST #94P #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 27, 2021:
Location: 14.7°S 142.6°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
OVER-LAND
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: DOWN-GRADED TO LOW
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INVEST #94P #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 27, 2021:
Location: 16.4°S 170.9°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

13S. WARNING 13.  THE MINIMAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST- NORTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE AGAINST THE  MARGINAL CONDITIONS THROUGH 48H, MAINTAINING AN AVERAGE  INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER AND HIGHER EXCURSIONS ON  A DIURNAL CYCLE. IF IT SURVIVES PASSAGE THROUGH THIS MARGINAL  ENVIRONMENT, AND AS IT MOVES INTO AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT AFTER 72H  IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS BY 120H.
13S. WARNING 13. THE MINIMAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST- NORTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE AGAINST THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS THROUGH 48H, MAINTAINING AN AVERAGE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER AND HIGHER EXCURSIONS ON A DIURNAL CYCLE. IF IT SURVIVES PASSAGE THROUGH THIS MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, AND AS IT MOVES INTO AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT AFTER 72H IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS BY 120H.

13S(NONAME). 27/0208UTC. MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE WESTERN AND  NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LLCC WHEREAS DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED.
13S(NONAME). 27/0208UTC. MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LLCC WHEREAS DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED.

INVEST 94P. 27/0635UTC. OVER-LAND DISTURBANCE DELIVERING THUNDER-STORMS AND LOCALISED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN QUEENSLAND.
INVEST 94P. 27/0635UTC. OVER-LAND DISTURBANCE DELIVERING THUNDER-STORMS AND LOCALISED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN QUEENSLAND.


INVEST 96P. 26/2216UTC. ASCAT DEPICTED THE NASCENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER STILL ELONGATED TO THE EAST OF VANUATU.
INVEST 96P. 26/2216UTC. ASCAT DEPICTED THE NASCENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER STILL ELONGATED TO THE EAST OF VANUATU.

TC 13S. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE  DURATION OF THE FORECAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE TO THE  JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
TC 13S. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.

INVEST 94P.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST  94P WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA FOR  THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR LONGER.
INVEST 94P. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST 94P WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR LONGER.

INVEST 96P. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96P  WILL TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT TWO TO  THREE DAYS.
INVEST 96P. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96P WILL TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.

27/00UTC
27/00UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 27 Janvier 2021 à 12:10