15UTC: TC 01B named FANI intensifying and could be an intense cyclone in 4 days. TC LORNA(25S) over open seas


TC FANI(01B): Warning 3/JTWC & TC LORNA(25S): Warning 17/JTWC


TC 01B: WARNING 3/JTWC
TC 01B: WARNING 3/JTWC
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TC FANI(01B)
As of 12:00 UTC Apr 27, 2019:

Location: 6.4°N 89.5°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 6.7N 89.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (FANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575 NM EAST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON SPIRAL BANDING IN A 271216Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS), SLIGHTLY BELOW THE CIMSS SATCON TREND TO
55 KTS. MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ARE SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSIFICATION. TC 01B IS
TRACKING POLEWARD TOWARDS A BREAK IN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THIS TRACK UNTIL AROUND TAU
96 WHEN IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS AND BEGINS RECURVING TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
WITH SEVERAL RAPID INTENSITY INDICATORS TRIGGERING, COAMPS-GFS
CALLING FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AFTER TAU 72, AND HWRF
CALLING FOR SLOW, GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
HEDGED BETWEEN THE RI INDICATORS AND COAMPS-GFS, SHOWING A PEAK OF
105 KTS BY TAU 96, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. SPREAD IN THE DYNAMIC MODEL
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY THIS CYCLE, WITH THE BULK
OF THE GUIDANCE BETWEEN GALWEM AND UKMET ON THE WEST AND THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN ON THE EAST. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE
TO THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND
281500Z.//
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TC LORNA(25S)
As of 12:00 UTC Apr 27, 2019:

Location: 14.5°S 88.7°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt ( 150km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 979 mb
CATEGORY 1 US

REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 88.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS ELONGATED OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON AN EYE FEATURE IN A 271123Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS), SLIGHTLY ABOVE CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATES
THAT ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MODERATE TO
STRONG (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS OFFSETTING EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST) TO INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST,
TC 25S WILL TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AFTER TAU 12, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASING HOSTILE,
OWING TO HIGH VWS AND COOL SST. AS A RESULT, THE INTENSITY WILL
DECREASE, SLOWLY AT FIRST, THEN MORE RAPIDLY. DISSIPATION IS
ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72 AS TC 25S BEGINS TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
NNNN

TC 01B WARNING 3/JTWC
TC 01B WARNING 3/JTWC

TC 25S WARNING 17/JTWC
TC 25S WARNING 17/JTWC

TC 25S WARNING 17/JTWC
TC 25S WARNING 17/JTWC

TC FANI(01B): 1446UTC
TC FANI(01B): 1446UTC

TC LORNA(25S): 0953UTC
TC LORNA(25S): 0953UTC

GUIDANCE FOR TC 01B
GUIDANCE FOR TC 01B

GUIDANCE FOR TC 25S
GUIDANCE FOR TC 25S
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 27 Avril 2019 à 22:38