03UTC: TC IDAI(18S) category 2 US, intensifying, possible category 4 in 24hours, possible threat to Quelimane/Beira in 4 days


Warning 8/JTWC


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https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC IDAI(18S)
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 11, 2019:

Location: 17.3°S 43.2°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Gusts: 110 kt (205km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 956mb
CATEGORY 2 US
INTENSIFYING.

REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 43.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (IDAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 339 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A SMALL, RAGGED EYE. A 110048Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AND A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0-5.5 (90-102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
KNES, RESPECTIVELY, AS WELL AS AN 110145Z AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE
OF 105 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, ENHANCED BY
TROUGHING TO THE EAST OF MADAGASCAR, AS WELL AS LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WARM SST (29-30C). TC 18S HAS BEEN ALMOST QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS IT TRANSITIONS FROM THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST, TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETELY
RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR WILL BECOME
THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AND TC 18S WILL ACCELERATE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TOWARD MOZAMBIQUE. AFTER TAU 72, TC 18S
WILL GRADUALLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL AFTER TAU 96.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT DUE TO THE RAPIDLY
EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN. THE MODEL SPREAD HAS STAYED CONSISTENTLY
LARGE AT TAU 120. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH
UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE QUICKLY INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 24. INTENSIFICATION WILL
BECOME MORE GRADUAL AFTER TAU 24 AS THE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY
ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WEAKENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST. TC 18S
WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARDS,
DIMINISHING OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING. TC 18S
WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AFTER TAU 96. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.//
NNNN

WARNING 8/JTWC
WARNING 8/JTWC

WARNING 8/JTWC
WARNING 8/JTWC

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01UTC
01UTC


0048UTC
0048UTC

0024UTC rammb
0024UTC rammb


HWRF AT 18UTC: 128KT AT +42H
HWRF AT 18UTC: 128KT AT +42H

GFS AT 18UTC: 99KT AT +60H
GFS AT 18UTC: 99KT AT +60H


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 11 Mars 2019 à 07:17