03UTC: JOANINHA(22S) is forecast to begin subtropical transition in 72h


Warning 33/JTWC


WARNING 33/JTWC
WARNING 33/JTWC

0205UTC
0205UTC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC JOANINHA(22S)
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 30, 2019:

Location: 24.4°S 69.2°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt (110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 mb
WEAKENING

REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 24.6S 69.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOANINHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 709 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE OF TC 22S
CONTINUES TO DEGRADE GRADUALLY WITH TIME. THE INITIAL POSITION OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 292314Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN ELONGATED LLCC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM PGTW/FMEE/FIMP AND T3.0
FROM KNES, COMBINED WITH EARLIER SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATING A
POSSIBLE LOW BIAS IN THE DVORAK VALUES. THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND TC
22S IS BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE, WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(30 TO 35 KNOTS) ACTING TO DISRUPT THE STRUCTURE OF THE CIRCULATION
AROUND TC 22S. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN MARGINAL (26 TO
27 DEGREES CELSIUS). HOWEVER, SST WILL DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK AS TC 22S CONTINUES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACK SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. COOLER SST, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC COLD-CORE LOW WILL
RESULT IN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION COMMENCING BY TAU 72 AND COMPLETED
BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
SHAPE OF THE TRACK, BUT THE SPREAD REMAINS SIGNIFICANT BEYOND TAU
24. GIVEN THE UPCOMING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AND THE SPREAD IN THE
TRACK GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.//
NNNN

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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 30 Mars 2019 à 07:14