Mitag(19W) passed over Yonaguni as a category 2 typhoon

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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY MITAG(19W)
As of 12:00 UTC Sep 30, 2019:
Location: 24.6°N 123.0°E
Maximum Winds: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Gusts: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 966 mb
CATEGORY US: 2
WDPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (MITAG) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 19W (MITAG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 703 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS
A SMALL RAGGED EYE WITH DISTINCT RAIN BANDS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED OFF EIR AND A 301200Z METOP-A ASCAT
PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KNOTS WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5-5.0 (77-90
KNOTS) AND A 301310Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS. MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS
BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS TY 19W GRAZES
TAIWAN. THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE. TY 19W IS TRACKING
AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 48, TY 19W WILL CREST THE STR AXIS AND GRADUALLY
TURN ONTO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD MAINTAIN
OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 12, HOWEVER, FRICTION DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU
12, CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION WITH COASTAL CHINA, COOL SST, AND HIGH
VWS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE NEAR-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY OF THE
TRACK TO CHINA AND TAIWAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL
STRONG AGREEMENT, DESPITE NVGM AND JGSM MAINTAINING THEIR TRACK
OFFSET TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF RE-CURVATURE
OF THE REMAINING MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK SPEED
DIFFERENCES AFTER TAU 48, LEADING TO FAIR OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THIS
PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 19W WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND START EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). PRIOR TO TAU
120, TY 19W WILL HAVE COMPLETELY TRANSITIONED INTO A COLD-CORE LOW AS
IT APPROACHES JAPAN. THE ALONG-TRACK AND CROSS-TRACK UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH AT TAU 120 DUE TO TIMING OF CAPTURE IN THE WESTERLIES.
THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST.//
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