Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260824 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.50    134.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  23.6  15.5  17.8  28.8  16.4  22.7  26.1  N  N  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  37.0  37.0  38.0  43.0   3.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0  34.0  58.0  65.0  35.0 -17.0 -12.0  25.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  51.0  54.0  57.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   0.0 -10.0   3.0  -3.0   3.0  -2.0   3.0  U  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        2.2%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%        5.9%        4.5%
 30kt / 24h        2.8%        4.3%        3.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.5%        3.7%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        3.0%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h       18.1%        2.0%       10.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.42

 WP172026 260824 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.50    134.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  23.6  15.5  17.8  28.8  16.4  22.7  26.1  N  N  U  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  51.0  54.0  57.0  53.0  55.0  55.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   0.0 -10.0   3.0  -3.0   3.0  -2.0   3.0  F  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.5%        2.2%