Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260822 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60    144.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.3  14.9  13.3  11.7  13.3  21.1  21.1  28.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  35.0  97.0 100.0  14.0   2.0  39.0  37.0  N  U  F  F  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  27.0  -4.0 -25.0   5.0  18.0  74.0  43.0  N  U  U VU  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  56.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  54.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   2.0  -8.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   5.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       66.6%       36.3%       51.5%
 25kt / 24h       62.8%       63.3%       63.0%
 30kt / 24h       61.9%       63.3%       62.6%
 35kt / 24h       60.0%       63.3%       61.6%
 40kt / 24h       42.6%       58.6%       50.6%
 45kt / 36h       90.8%       55.4%       73.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 WP172026 260822 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.60    144.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.3  14.9  13.3  11.7  13.3  21.1  21.1  28.4  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  56.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  54.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   2.0  -8.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   5.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%