Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092026 260703 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70    152.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     92.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  23.5  19.9  17.7  18.6  25.3  29.3  25.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  117.0 117.0 115.0 116.0 118.0 127.0 134.0 131.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 Potential [kt]         25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  63.0  68.0  93.0  99.0 104.0 112.0  82.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  73.0  74.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       60.5%        0.0%       30.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 WP092026 260703 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70    152.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  23.5  19.9  17.7  18.6  25.3  29.3  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  73.0  74.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%