Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092026 260702 12UTC Storm Located at : 12.30 158.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 79.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 66.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.9 11.9 9.5 9.1 11.7 16.4 18.1 19.8 F F F F F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 111.0 113.0 113.0 113.0 114.0 114.0 117.0 128.0 F F F F F F F VF Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 92.0 81.0 85.0 67.0 77.0 89.0 121.0 81.0 F N F N N F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 68.0 67.0 69.0 71.0 73.0 73.0 71.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 50.2% 47.7% 48.9% 25kt / 24h 87.0% 90.9% 89.0% 30kt / 24h 82.1% 90.5% 86.3% 35kt / 24h 66.8% 90.5% 78.7% 40kt / 24h 51.5% 90.5% 71.0% 45kt / 36h 89.5% 90.4% 89.9% 55kt / 36h 87.0% 85.2% 86.1% 55kt / 48h 97.2% 86.1% 91.7% 70kt / 48h 95.0% 78.5% 86.7% 65kt / 72h 62.6% 86.4% 74.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.04 WP092026 260702 12UTC Storm Located at : 12.30 158.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.9 11.9 9.5 9.1 11.7 16.4 18.1 19.8 U U U U U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 68.0 67.0 69.0 71.0 73.0 73.0 71.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%