Rapid Intensification Guidance WP072026 260621 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.10 131.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 76.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 68.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.5 19.8 23.1 40.9 33.5 44.7 37.1 41.4 N N N VU U VU U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 122.0 118.0 111.0 105.0 100.0 98.0 90.0 78.0 F F F F F F F N Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 39.0 21.0 -1.0 27.0 16.0 10.0 4.0 16.0 N U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 61.0 56.0 58.0 59.0 65.0 65.0 69.0 N N U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -3.0 6.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 68.2% 45.0% 56.6% 25kt / 24h 69.0% 71.2% 70.1% 30kt / 24h 66.0% 66.0% 66.0% 35kt / 24h 58.1% 66.0% 62.1% 40kt / 24h 44.9% 64.7% 54.8% 45kt / 36h 44.2% 46.9% 45.5% 55kt / 36h 30.0% 26.0% 28.0% 55kt / 48h 35.4% 18.3% 26.8% 70kt / 48h 16.4% 7.7% 12.1% 65kt / 72h 11.4% 7.3% 9.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.68 WP072026 260621 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.10 131.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.5 19.8 23.1 40.9 33.5 44.7 37.1 41.4 N N N VF F VF F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 61.0 56.0 58.0 59.0 65.0 65.0 69.0 N N F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -3.0 6.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%