Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052025 250619 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90     96.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  17.0  15.6   8.4   9.6   9.6   9.6   9.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  23.0  17.0   8.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0 106.0 105.0  88.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  F  F  F  F  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  86.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -4.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       66.6%       37.0%       51.8%
 25kt / 24h       60.9%       65.0%       63.0%
 30kt / 24h       54.8%       65.0%       59.9%
 35kt / 24h       53.5%       65.0%       59.2%
 40kt / 24h       53.5%       63.1%       58.3%
 45kt / 36h       92.0%       57.9%       74.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.62

 EP052025 250619 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90     96.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  17.0  15.6   8.4   9.6   9.6   9.6   9.6  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  86.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  84.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -4.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%