Rapid Intensification Guidance SH212024 240406 12UTC Storm Located at : -13.60 120.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 89.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 71.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.7 25.7 27.1 34.2 42.0 50.6 54.0 55.7 N N N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 36.0 39.0 42.0 45.0 50.0 45.0 36.0 32.0 U U N N N N U U Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 28.0 33.0 9.0 4.0 15.0 17.0 15.0 26.0 U N U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 57.0 55.0 50.0 47.0 39.0 29.0 24.0 N U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -6.0 -5.0 -6.0 -9.0 -11.0 -11.0 -6.0 N F F F F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 47.7% 30.2% 38.9% 25kt / 24h 47.0% 60.8% 53.9% 30kt / 24h 42.2% 55.7% 49.0% 35kt / 24h 42.2% 55.7% 49.0% 40kt / 24h 23.1% 52.9% 38.0% 45kt / 36h 16.8% 34.7% 25.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 17.3% 8.6% 55kt / 48h 1.7% 7.5% 4.6% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 3.5% 1.8% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 1.7% 0.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.84 SH212024 240406 12UTC Storm Located at : -13.60 120.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.7 25.7 27.1 34.2 42.0 50.6 54.0 55.7 N N N F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 57.0 55.0 50.0 47.0 39.0 29.0 24.0 N F F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -6.0 -5.0 -6.0 -9.0 -11.0 -11.0 -6.0 N U U U U U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%