Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH202024 240327 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.90     50.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  25.4  20.5  24.8  32.7  33.0  31.7  33.2  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  31.0  28.0  38.0  41.0  46.0  60.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   146.0 204.0 167.0 137.0 154.0  87.0  82.0  47.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  80.0  78.0  76.0  72.0  68.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -8.0  -4.0  -5.0  -8.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       60.8%       16.1%       38.5%
 25kt / 24h       66.8%       49.8%       58.3%
 30kt / 24h       66.8%       39.6%       53.2%
 35kt / 24h       66.8%       39.6%       53.2%
 40kt / 24h       66.8%       39.6%       53.2%
 45kt / 36h       67.8%       24.0%       45.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.1%        4.6%
 55kt / 48h       15.5%        8.2%       11.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.32

 SH202024 240327 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.90     50.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  25.4  20.5  24.8  32.7  33.0  31.7  33.2  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  80.0  80.0  78.0  76.0  72.0  68.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -8.0  -4.0  -5.0  -8.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%