Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH202024 240326 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.70     50.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     86.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  24.9  20.5  21.8  27.8  27.2  31.1  29.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  42.0  40.0  37.0  31.0  28.0  37.0  43.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   183.0 212.0 185.0 167.0 149.0 131.0 127.0  61.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  79.0  80.0  79.0  78.0  76.0  71.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -6.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  -6.0  -3.0  -1.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.7%        6.2%        4.9%
 25kt / 24h       50.8%       62.1%       56.4%
 30kt / 24h       15.3%       43.6%       29.4%
 35kt / 24h        7.4%       43.6%       25.5%
 40kt / 24h        4.6%       40.1%       22.3%
 45kt / 36h       28.2%       64.4%       46.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       39.7%       19.9%
 55kt / 48h       41.3%       45.9%       43.6%
 70kt / 48h       15.6%       37.8%       26.7%
 65kt / 72h       43.3%       49.1%       46.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 SH202024 240326 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.70     50.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  24.9  20.5  21.8  27.8  27.2  31.1  29.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  79.0  80.0  79.0  78.0  76.0  71.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -6.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  -6.0  -3.0  -1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%