Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192024 240317 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.90    137.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     95.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  30.3  30.1  27.7  31.4  29.9  29.1  32.4  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  22.0  84.0  65.0  18.5  21.4  24.3  27.3  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  82.0  75.1  72.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  40.0  43.0  56.0  51.0  73.0  36.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  65.0  59.0  56.0  55.0  63.0  65.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 -13.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       71.6%       38.2%       54.9%
 25kt / 24h       68.1%       66.5%       67.3%
 30kt / 24h       68.1%       66.0%       67.1%
 35kt / 24h       68.1%       66.0%       67.1%
 40kt / 24h       46.2%       62.6%       54.4%
 45kt / 36h       42.7%       37.4%       40.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       20.1%       10.1%
 55kt / 48h       10.4%       14.7%       12.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        5.5%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        3.9%        2.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.46

 SH192024 240317 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.90    137.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  30.3  30.1  27.7  31.4  29.9  29.1  32.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  65.0  59.0  56.0  55.0  63.0  65.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 -13.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%