Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH162024 240221 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.80     60.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.7  33.2  29.0  24.3  28.8  35.9  38.1  44.6  U  U  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  62.0  51.0  46.0  30.0  19.0  13.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 107.9  99.4  95.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   138.0 105.0  79.0  44.0  55.0  35.0 -26.0 -10.0 VF  F  N  N  N  N VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  60.0  54.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  49.0  44.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -3.0  -6.0  -8.0 -11.0 -18.0  -8.0  -3.0  F  N  F  F  F VF  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.3%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        8.1%       15.2%       11.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        6.4%        4.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        5.7%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        5.6%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        4.1%        9.2%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.3%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        3.6%        4.4%        4.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        1.4%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        2.9%        1.7%        2.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.34

 SH162024 240221 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.80     60.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.7  33.2  29.0  24.3  28.8  35.9  38.1  44.6  N  F  N  N  N  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  60.0  54.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  49.0  44.0  F  N  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -3.0  -6.0  -8.0 -11.0 -18.0  -8.0  -3.0  U  N  U  U  U VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%