Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH162024 240219 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.40     55.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  22.6  22.6  25.1  28.8  27.9  27.9  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  63.0  58.0  57.0  54.0  45.0  42.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   118.0 114.0 127.0 152.0 124.0 110.0  57.0  41.0  F  F  F VF  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  68.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   4.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -7.0  -6.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        4.4%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h       26.5%       40.2%       33.4%
 30kt / 24h       10.6%       20.4%       15.5%
 35kt / 24h        6.2%       19.7%       12.9%
 40kt / 24h        6.2%       19.7%       12.9%
 45kt / 36h       19.6%       40.6%       30.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       17.4%        8.7%
 55kt / 48h       28.2%       23.8%       26.0%
 70kt / 48h       19.4%       15.0%       17.2%
 65kt / 72h       45.3%       30.6%       37.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.94

 SH162024 240219 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.40     55.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  22.6  22.6  25.1  28.8  27.9  27.9  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  68.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   4.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -7.0  -6.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%