Rapid Intensification Guidance SH132024 240217 18UTC Storm Located at : -16.70 72.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 100.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 96.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 81.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.5 38.5 42.7 51.8 60.4 70.7 64.5 71.5 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 45.0 58.0 47.0 37.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 65.0 65.0 65.0 62.0 40.5 15.0 4.2 -6.2 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 78.0 111.0 79.0 75.0 100.0 2.0 25.0 4.0 N F N N F U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 66.0 62.0 59.0 51.0 40.0 20.0 15.0 N N N U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 7.0 13.0 -4.0 0.0 27.0 14.0 15.0 N N U F N VU U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 50.0% 11.9% 30.9% 25kt / 24h 25.1% 15.4% 20.2% 30kt / 24h 18.1% 9.4% 13.8% 35kt / 24h 18.1% 9.4% 13.8% 40kt / 24h 8.5% 8.3% 8.4% 45kt / 36h 15.6% 2.7% 9.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.02 SH132024 240217 18UTC Storm Located at : -16.70 72.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 100.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.5 38.5 42.7 51.8 60.4 70.7 64.5 71.5 N F VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 66.0 62.0 59.0 51.0 40.0 20.0 15.0 N N N F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 7.0 13.0 -4.0 0.0 27.0 14.0 15.0 N N F U N VF F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 7.6% 3.8%