Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052024 240114 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.80     53.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  31.4  32.1  26.0  29.9  34.2  34.9  37.2  N  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  35.0  24.0  14.0   9.0   9.0  13.0   5.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  79.3  72.3  63.6  57.4  57.4  59.4  55.5  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  58.0  79.0  97.0  90.0 124.0 109.0 124.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  71.0  68.0  59.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0 -11.0 -21.0 -15.0 -13.0  -7.0  N  F  F  F VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       34.4%       14.9%       24.7%
 25kt / 24h       29.1%       27.8%       28.4%
 30kt / 24h       20.9%       20.9%       20.9%
 35kt / 24h       18.2%       20.9%       19.6%
 40kt / 24h       16.3%       20.1%       18.2%
 45kt / 36h       22.4%        9.5%       15.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.2%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        1.9%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.42

 SH052024 240114 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -19.80     53.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  31.4  32.1  26.0  29.9  34.2  34.9  37.2  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  71.0  68.0  59.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0 -11.0 -21.0 -15.0 -13.0  -7.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%