Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052024 240114 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.10     53.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     91.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  16.7  18.1  25.9  25.4  29.5  32.5  30.1  N  F  F  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  56.0  58.0  55.0  28.0  24.0  20.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  89.6  85.1  85.1  89.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  90.0  83.0  51.0 113.0  89.0  57.0  31.0  N  F  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  72.0  74.0  77.0  73.0  67.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   6.0   0.0  -1.0 -10.0  -7.0  -5.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       72.0%       53.2%       62.6%
 25kt / 24h       80.6%       85.0%       82.8%
 30kt / 24h       80.6%       85.0%       82.8%
 35kt / 24h       80.6%       85.0%       82.8%
 40kt / 24h       53.7%       83.2%       68.4%
 45kt / 36h       56.9%       64.3%       60.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       46.7%       23.3%
 55kt / 48h       33.4%       37.4%       35.4%
 70kt / 48h        8.0%       18.0%       13.0%
 65kt / 72h        4.8%       10.8%        7.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 SH052024 240114 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -18.10     53.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  16.7  18.1  25.9  25.4  29.5  32.5  30.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  72.0  74.0  77.0  73.0  67.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   6.0   0.0  -1.0 -10.0  -7.0  -5.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%