Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH052024 240112 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.30     56.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  19.3  23.3  18.6  13.2  12.4  19.4  17.9  F  N  N  N  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  71.0  68.0  66.0  62.0  63.0  67.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0  71.0  72.0 102.0  83.0 123.0  87.0  88.0  F  N  N  F  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  77.0  68.0  68.0  69.0  72.0  70.0  74.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.2%       12.3%       10.3%
 25kt / 24h       43.7%       61.4%       52.5%
 30kt / 24h       21.9%       41.7%       31.8%
 35kt / 24h       15.0%       41.4%       28.2%
 40kt / 24h        4.5%       41.3%       22.9%
 45kt / 36h       37.1%       73.9%       55.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       55.8%       27.9%
 55kt / 48h       51.1%       64.5%       57.8%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       60.8%       42.8%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       78.0%       69.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.30

 SH052024 240112 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.30     56.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  19.3  23.3  18.6  13.2  12.4  19.4  17.9  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  77.0  68.0  68.0  69.0  72.0  70.0  74.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%