Rapid Intensification Guidance IO082023 231204 12UTC Storm Located at : 13.80 80.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 78.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.5 18.5 14.8 20.7 32.8 45.8 70.9 76.5 N N F N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 24.0 16.0 3.0 29.0 30.0 17.5 12.5 7.5 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 99.6 84.4 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 27.0 4.0 -2.0 -8.0 -11.0 29.0 32.0 -15.0 U U U U U N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 58.0 59.0 56.0 53.0 52.0 53.0 50.0 N U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 6.0 7.0 7.0 14.0 20.0 12.0 -3.0 N N N N U VU U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 26.3% 29.7% 28.0% 25kt / 24h 45.2% 69.3% 57.2% 30kt / 24h 44.3% 69.3% 56.8% 35kt / 24h 44.3% 69.3% 56.8% 40kt / 24h 12.7% 66.0% 39.3% 45kt / 36h 21.2% 47.3% 34.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 30.2% 15.1% 55kt / 48h 4.3% 15.8% 10.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 4.3% 2.2% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.60 IO082023 231204 12UTC Storm Located at : 13.80 80.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.5 18.5 14.8 20.7 32.8 45.8 70.9 76.5 N N U N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 58.0 59.0 56.0 53.0 52.0 53.0 50.0 N F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 6.0 7.0 7.0 14.0 20.0 12.0 -3.0 N N N N F VF F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%