Rapid Intensification Guidance SH022024 231113 06UTC Storm Located at : -11.10 171.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 98.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 84.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.5 34.9 32.9 34.7 38.0 57.6 75.0 85.5 U U U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 79.0 83.0 38.0 20.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 84.4 56.7 36.6 27.7 N N N N N U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 93.0 68.0 45.0 18.0 20.0 11.0 57.0 70.0 F N N U U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 57.0 51.0 47.0 44.0 45.0 46.0 45.0 N U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -19.0 -31.0 -46.0 -39.0 U N N F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 17.8% 14.7% 16.3% 25kt / 24h 39.8% 51.7% 45.7% 30kt / 24h 19.5% 36.6% 28.1% 35kt / 24h 17.8% 36.6% 27.2% 40kt / 24h 7.3% 33.3% 20.3% 45kt / 36h 7.9% 33.5% 20.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 15.4% 7.7% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 1.9% 1.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.58 SH022024 231113 06UTC Storm Located at : -11.10 171.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.5 34.9 32.9 34.7 38.0 57.6 75.0 85.5 N F F F F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 57.0 51.0 47.0 44.0 45.0 46.0 45.0 N F F VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -19.0 -31.0 -46.0 -39.0 F N N U VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%