Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152023 231011 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    142.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   155.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   155.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     93.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  19.7  21.7  28.8  31.7  54.2  54.6  79.3  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  62.0  63.0  50.0  34.0  22.0  11.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0   2.3  -2.1 -23.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   119.0 114.0 148.0 123.0  76.0  80.0  94.0  96.0  F  F VF  F  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  62.0  66.0  64.0  59.0  55.0  52.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   7.0   6.0   5.0 -27.0 -64.0 -90.0  N  N  N  N  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.62

 WP152023 231011 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    142.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   155.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   155.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  19.7  21.7  28.8  31.7  54.2  54.6  79.3  N  N  N  N  N VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  62.0  66.0  64.0  59.0  55.0  52.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   7.0   6.0   5.0 -27.0 -64.0 -90.0  N  N  N  N  N VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.1%        1.5%