Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP052023 230802 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    113.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  13.8  19.2  21.5  22.9  23.8  20.5  17.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  15.0  14.0  15.0  10.0  15.0   1.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.1  60.7  58.6  52.4  54.4  52.4  58.6  56.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  -8.0 -36.0 -59.0  -1.0  12.0  54.0  33.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  55.0  58.0  57.0  58.0  59.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       58.6%       27.9%       43.2%
 25kt / 24h       34.5%       28.7%       31.6%
 30kt / 24h       34.5%       25.7%       30.1%
 35kt / 24h       34.5%       25.7%       30.1%
 40kt / 24h       34.5%       25.2%       29.8%
 45kt / 36h       27.9%       17.3%       22.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.80

 EP052023 230802 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    113.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  13.8  19.2  21.5  22.9  23.8  20.5  17.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  55.0  58.0  57.0  58.0  59.0  61.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%