Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230802 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20    125.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.7  25.2  20.9  18.1  20.0  16.9  15.4  12.8  U  N  N  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  30.0  26.0  50.0  43.0  51.0  53.0  51.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -20.0  38.0  29.0  12.0  18.0 -16.0   2.0 -16.0 VU  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  67.0  64.0  68.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   0.0  -6.0   0.0  11.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  F  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.8%        2.5%        3.6%
 25kt / 24h        4.3%        7.4%        5.9%
 30kt / 24h        4.3%        4.5%        4.4%
 35kt / 24h        4.3%        4.5%        4.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        4.3%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h       18.6%        3.0%       10.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 WP062023 230802 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.20    125.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.7  25.2  20.9  18.1  20.0  16.9  15.4  12.8  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  67.0  64.0  68.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   0.0  -6.0   0.0  11.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  U  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%