Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062023 230801 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60    129.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.6  31.3  29.6  24.0  19.5  32.1  19.0  21.1  N  U  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  64.0  67.0  63.0  42.0  27.0  21.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -31.0 -56.0  15.0  35.0   3.0  36.0 -27.0   6.0 VU VU  U  N  U  N VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  62.0  65.0  66.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   2.0  14.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.9%        2.6%        5.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%        3.8%        3.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.1%        2.2%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%        2.0%        2.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 WP062023 230801 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60    129.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.6  31.3  29.6  24.0  19.5  32.1  19.0  21.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  62.0  65.0  66.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   2.0  14.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        8.6%        4.3%