Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP052023 230727 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10    119.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  20.0  13.0  11.4  19.6  15.8  17.1  29.1  F  N  F  F  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  29.0  13.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  70.7  33.6  24.2  18.2 -11.6 -20.3  N  N  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0   0.0  66.0  21.0  11.0  35.0  49.0  27.0  U  U  N  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  78.0  78.0  77.0  81.0  83.0  79.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  -3.0 -14.0  23.0  22.0   3.0  11.0  F  N  N VF VU VU  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.6%       11.1%       10.8%
 25kt / 24h       12.7%       22.5%       17.6%
 30kt / 24h       10.7%       19.3%       15.0%
 35kt / 24h       10.7%       19.3%       15.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.9%       17.9%        9.9%
 45kt / 36h        4.8%        4.7%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.52

 WP052023 230727 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10    119.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  20.0  13.0  11.4  19.6  15.8  17.1  29.1  U  N  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  78.0  78.0  77.0  81.0  83.0  79.0  72.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  -3.0 -14.0  23.0  22.0   3.0  11.0  U  N  N VU VF VF  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%