Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032023 230715 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    126.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  15.3  13.1  16.2  21.3  18.4  19.7  21.4  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         44.8  44.8  31.1  31.1  18.0  16.7  14.2  18.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  18.0  14.0 -10.0  -3.0  26.0 -20.0   3.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  68.0  65.0  60.0  58.0  53.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -4.0   2.0   3.0   5.0  10.0   6.0   6.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.70

 EP032023 230715 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    126.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.