Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032023 230609 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    130.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.4  37.9  38.5  38.3  32.7  25.8  30.2  40.2  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  26.0  17.0  11.0   5.0   5.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.1  72.9  70.7  68.6  72.9  68.6  38.0  15.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  54.0  34.0  11.0  78.0  36.0  83.0  43.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  69.0  70.0  73.0  76.0  76.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   8.0  24.0  43.0  28.0  35.0  34.0  26.0  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        0.8%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.8%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        0.7%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.90

 WP032023 230609 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    130.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.4  37.9  38.5  38.3  32.7  25.8  30.2  40.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  63.0  69.0  70.0  73.0  76.0  76.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   8.0  24.0  43.0  28.0  35.0  34.0  26.0  N  F VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        7.5%        4.1%        5.8%