Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032023 230608 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    131.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  24.3  25.7  32.7  31.1  34.0  37.6  32.3  F  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  49.0  39.0  32.0  26.0  25.0  17.0   8.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0  99.3  97.0  92.3  92.3  90.1  87.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  35.0  39.0  38.0  41.0  65.0  27.0  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  61.0  61.0  67.0  70.0  77.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   5.0  16.0  42.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       35.1%       24.3%       29.7%
 25kt / 24h       42.8%       51.5%       47.1%
 30kt / 24h       32.1%       43.9%       38.0%
 35kt / 24h       30.7%       43.9%       37.3%
 40kt / 24h       17.3%       42.6%       29.9%
 45kt / 36h       17.9%       22.3%       20.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.1%        4.6%
 55kt / 48h        5.0%        9.0%        7.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        2.4%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.52

 WP032023 230608 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    131.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  24.3  25.7  32.7  31.1  34.0  37.6  32.3  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  61.0  61.0  67.0  70.0  77.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   5.0  16.0  42.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%