Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP032023 230607 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    134.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.5  12.6  10.0  16.5  24.0  36.3  36.8  36.3  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   83.0  68.0  61.0  58.0  45.0  25.0  21.0  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 124.3 117.3 115.1 119.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  39.0  67.0  73.0  48.0  46.0  29.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  62.0  61.0  63.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   6.0   9.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.1%       12.8%       10.5%
 25kt / 24h       41.5%       63.3%       52.4%
 30kt / 24h       23.0%       47.4%       35.2%
 35kt / 24h       14.0%       47.2%       30.6%
 40kt / 24h        7.4%       47.2%       27.3%
 45kt / 36h       32.2%       60.7%       46.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       39.7%       19.9%
 55kt / 48h       30.4%       30.9%       30.6%
 70kt / 48h       18.4%       19.1%       18.8%
 65kt / 72h       19.5%       15.0%       17.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 WP032023 230607 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    134.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.5  12.6  10.0  16.5  24.0  36.3  36.8  36.3  U  U  U  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  62.0  61.0  63.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   6.0   9.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%