Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230524 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    144.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     86.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  23.2  19.8  18.8  19.7  18.1  20.0  23.3  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  122.0 122.0 131.0 114.0  96.0  80.0  73.0  93.0  F  F VF  F  F  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]         35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  38.0  30.0  30.0  42.0  60.0  79.0  61.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  64.0  67.0  72.0  73.0  75.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   9.0  10.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       47.0%       11.4%       29.2%
 25kt / 24h       26.3%       17.0%       21.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.08

 WP022023 230524 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    144.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  23.2  19.8  18.8  19.7  18.1  20.0  23.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  64.0  67.0  72.0  73.0  75.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   9.0  10.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%