Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230523 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20    146.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     90.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  27.1  27.3  31.8  27.8  22.0  17.3  13.9  N  N  N  U  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   96.0  96.0  96.0  99.0 109.0 116.0 145.0  97.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF  F
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  31.0  45.0  21.0  25.0  63.0  57.0  46.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  75.0  73.0  72.0  67.0  69.0  72.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   5.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       59.3%       17.4%       38.4%
 25kt / 24h       34.2%       24.0%       29.1%
 30kt / 24h       27.8%       16.9%       22.4%
 35kt / 24h       24.6%       16.9%       20.8%
 40kt / 24h       17.6%       15.0%       16.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 WP022023 230523 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20    146.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  27.1  27.3  31.8  27.8  22.0  17.3  13.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  75.0  73.0  72.0  67.0  69.0  72.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   5.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.7%        2.3%