Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230522 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.00    146.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  32.0  32.7  31.1  35.6  26.9  30.4  28.5  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   95.0  96.0  97.0  95.0  93.0  87.0 102.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F VF
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   100.0  33.0  15.0  -5.0   9.0  57.0  48.0  12.0  F  N  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  70.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  68.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.9%       11.4%       17.2%
 25kt / 24h       30.7%       27.2%       29.0%
 30kt / 24h       22.0%       19.2%       20.6%
 35kt / 24h       15.4%       19.2%       17.3%
 40kt / 24h       15.4%       17.7%       16.6%
 45kt / 36h       32.8%        9.0%       20.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.8%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        7.1%        3.5%        5.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.04

 WP022023 230522 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.00    146.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  32.0  32.7  31.1  35.6  26.9  30.4  28.5  N  N  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  70.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  68.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%