Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP022023 230521 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.60    148.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     79.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  33.7  32.5  30.4  23.7  26.4  29.7  26.8  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   80.0  98.0  98.0  97.0  97.0  86.0  85.0  87.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   197.0 155.0 125.0 120.0  94.0  24.0  15.0  52.0 VF VF  F  F  F  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  70.0  72.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   5.0   5.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       46.1%       20.2%       33.2%
 25kt / 24h       77.4%       70.1%       73.7%
 30kt / 24h       55.3%       58.6%       57.0%
 35kt / 24h       47.7%       58.6%       53.2%
 40kt / 24h       47.7%       55.8%       51.8%
 45kt / 36h       55.2%       60.8%       58.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       36.1%       18.0%
 55kt / 48h       47.6%       41.1%       44.3%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       23.5%       24.2%
 65kt / 72h       47.5%       30.5%       39.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 WP022023 230521 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.60    148.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  33.7  32.5  30.4  23.7  26.4  29.7  26.8  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  70.0  72.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   5.0   5.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%