Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH192023 230517 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -8.90     73.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  27.0  24.9  25.1  21.7  23.3  23.0  24.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  28.0  28.0  24.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         69.6  69.6  72.0  72.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  71.0  64.0  49.0  33.0  38.0  48.0  79.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  55.0  55.0  58.0  60.0  62.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        1.0%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.3%        3.7%        3.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.3%        1.6%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        3.3%        1.6%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        3.3%        1.6%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        9.1%        1.0%        5.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.26

 SH192023 230517 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -8.90     73.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  27.0  24.9  25.1  21.7  23.3  23.0  24.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  55.0  55.0  58.0  60.0  62.0  61.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%