Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012023 230514 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80     92.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     95.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.3  37.9  40.9  54.2  87.2  87.2  87.2  87.2 VU  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  37.5  30.0  22.5   7.5   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         30.0   9.4   7.4   5.5  -7.3  -7.3  -7.3  -7.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0  15.0  10.0  20.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  58.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  11.0  18.0  33.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  U VU VU  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.26

 IO012023 230514 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80     92.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.3  37.9  40.9  54.2  87.2  87.2  87.2  87.2 VF  F VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  58.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  11.0  18.0  33.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  F VF VF  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        8.2%       56.0%       32.1%