Rapid Intensification Guidance IO012023 230513 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.90 90.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 100.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 99.00 VF IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 134.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.2 25.5 33.4 43.0 46.4 76.1 76.1 76.1 U N U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 53.0 58.0 16.0 41.0 24.6 8.2 0.0 0.0 N N U N U U U U Potential [kt] 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 12.4 3.0 3.0 3.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 33.0 27.0 30.0 15.0 28.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 N U N U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 60.0 56.0 54.0 56.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 U N U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -6.0 -9.0 -9.0 30.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 N F F F VU N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 35.4% 6.8% 21.1% 25kt / 24h 6.2% 4.7% 5.5% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.14 IO012023 230513 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.90 90.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 134.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.2 25.5 33.4 43.0 46.4 76.1 76.1 76.1 N N F VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 60.0 56.0 54.0 56.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 F N F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -6.0 -9.0 -9.0 30.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 N U U U VF N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 10.9% 5.5%