Rapid Intensification Guidance IO012023 230512 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.00 88.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 35.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 100.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 98.00 VF IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.3 31.5 28.5 35.6 40.0 49.0 52.7 63.6 VU U N U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 62.0 63.0 62.0 54.0 35.0 40.0 24.0 8.0 N N N N U N U U Potential [kt] 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 32.4 32.4 21.2 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 39.0 12.0 -32.0 -3.0 7.0 25.0 23.0 31.0 N U VU U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 53.0 49.0 51.0 48.0 57.0 53.0 53.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 18.0 15.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 32.0 3.0 VU U N N N N VU N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 43.7% 8.6% 26.2% 25kt / 24h 20.6% 13.0% 16.8% 30kt / 24h 20.6% 8.7% 14.6% 35kt / 24h 20.6% 8.7% 14.6% 40kt / 24h 5.1% 7.5% 6.3% 45kt / 36h 39.1% 6.0% 22.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.96 IO012023 230512 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.00 88.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 35.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.3 31.5 28.5 35.6 40.0 49.0 52.7 63.6 VF N N F F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 53.0 49.0 51.0 48.0 57.0 53.0 53.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 18.0 15.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 32.0 3.0 VF F N N N N VF N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 1.4% 15.0% 8.2%