Rapid Intensification Guidance SH182023 230413 00UTC Storm Located at : -17.70 119.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 100.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 100.00 VF IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.3 21.0 25.9 32.3 40.8 52.1 47.9 48.7 N N N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 82.0 123.0 69.0 46.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N F N N U U U U Potential [kt] 50.0 50.0 50.0 44.6 -9.6 -7.0 16.2 29.4 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 52.0 87.0 70.0 23.0 15.0 14.0 6.0 -5.0 N F N U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 52.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 52.0 40.0 32.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 58.0 61.0 41.0 37.0 N N N N VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 59.6% 21.6% 40.6% 25kt / 24h 31.1% 24.2% 27.7% 30kt / 24h 28.6% 18.1% 23.3% 35kt / 24h 28.6% 18.1% 23.3% 40kt / 24h 9.0% 15.9% 12.4% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.04 SH182023 230413 00UTC Storm Located at : -17.70 119.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.3 21.0 25.9 32.3 40.8 52.1 47.9 48.7 N N N N VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 52.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 52.0 40.0 32.0 F F F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 58.0 61.0 41.0 37.0 N N N N VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 6.5% 3.3%