Rapid Intensification Guidance SH182023 230412 06UTC Storm Located at : -16.00 119.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 93.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 84.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.5 21.1 21.9 18.4 29.8 53.3 50.7 67.8 N N N F N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 60.0 64.0 71.0 76.0 111.0 42.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N F N U U Potential [kt] 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 60.7 25.0 19.4 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 24.0 5.0 17.0 36.0 52.0 38.0 29.0 8.0 U U U N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 53.0 54.0 50.0 46.0 46.0 49.0 36.0 U U U U VU VU U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -1.0 5.0 62.0 86.0 N N N N N N VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 51.0% 29.1% 40.1% 25kt / 24h 51.5% 53.9% 52.7% 30kt / 24h 51.5% 53.0% 52.2% 35kt / 24h 51.5% 53.0% 52.2% 40kt / 24h 18.9% 49.7% 34.3% 45kt / 36h 62.0% 36.1% 49.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 20.8% 10.4% 55kt / 48h 11.3% 6.5% 8.9% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.70 SH182023 230412 06UTC Storm Located at : -16.00 119.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.5 21.1 21.9 18.4 29.8 53.3 50.7 67.8 N N N N N VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 53.0 54.0 50.0 46.0 46.0 49.0 36.0 F F F F VF VF F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -1.0 5.0 62.0 86.0 N N N N N N VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.7% 0.3%