Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH172023 230329 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.00    102.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  20.3  17.6  18.2  18.8  20.0  23.2  27.2  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  42.0  43.0  40.0  43.0  31.0  26.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.3 119.3 117.0 114.6 114.6 110.1 110.1 110.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  63.0  72.0  62.0  44.0  27.0  17.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  61.0  58.0  59.0  55.0  52.0  47.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -7.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.4%       11.6%       11.5%
 25kt / 24h       35.7%       55.1%       45.4%
 30kt / 24h       19.7%       40.4%       30.1%
 35kt / 24h       15.8%       40.4%       28.1%
 40kt / 24h        8.1%       39.6%       23.9%
 45kt / 36h       27.5%       56.0%       41.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       35.1%       17.5%
 55kt / 48h       25.9%       30.7%       28.3%
 70kt / 48h       12.8%       22.4%       17.6%
 65kt / 72h       18.8%       23.0%       20.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.36

 SH172023 230329 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.00    102.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  20.3  17.6  18.2  18.8  20.0  23.2  27.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  61.0  58.0  59.0  55.0  52.0  47.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -7.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%